The US-China tech decoupling will create two parallel internets
Export controls, AI chip restrictions, and TikTok bans aren't isolated events — they're symptoms of a structural split. Builders should plan for it.
We're not heading toward "one global tech ecosystem with some friction." We're heading toward two parallel internets — one led by the US/EU, one led by China and its allies.
Evidence:
- US restricts NVIDIA H100/H200 exports to China → China responds by accelerating Huawei Ascend chips
- China bans Western cloud providers → Alibaba/Tencent dominate Asia + Africa
- TikTok divestment forced in US → ByteDance entrenches in 150+ other countries
- EU AI Act vs. China's AI regulations vs. US executive orders — three different legal regimes
Most builders haven't priced this in. They build assuming a unified global market. But:
1. Distribution channels are splitting (App Store policies, payment rails, ad networks)
2. Talent flows are slowing (visa restrictions, security reviews)
3. Standards are diverging (5G, AI safety, payment systems)
4. Capital is decoupling (CFIUS reviews, Chinese listings de-listing from US)
If you're building a product that depends on:
- Global distribution → assume you ship 2 versions
- Chinese hardware → assume export controls hit you
- Cross-border payments → assume more friction
- Open source → assume forks (already happening with Linux ecosystem)
This isn't doom. It's a structural shift. The builders who plan for it will outperform the ones still pretending the 2010s globalization is coming back.
It's not.